Report for the attention of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank for its quarterly monetary policy assessment of June 2026

The report describes economic and monetary developments in Switzerland and explains the inflation forecast. It shows how the SNB views the economic situation and the implications for monetary policy it draws from this assessment.

Key points

• On 18 June 2026, the SNB decided to leave its policy rate at 0%. Medium-term inflationary pressure has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment. The SNB's monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and it supports economic development. If necessary, the SNB has an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
• Global economic growth was solid in the first quarter of 2026, but has since weakened somewhat. Inflation has risen in many countries in recent months. Due to the conflict in the Middle East and the strong increase in raw material prices, global economic growth is likely to be more moderate in the short term than in the previous quarters. Furthermore, inflation is likely to remain elevated for the time being.
• Swiss GDP growth was solid in the first quarter of 2026. In the coming quarters, the more moderate development of the global economy is likely to dampen growth in Switzerland, while the SNB's monetary policy will have a supportive effect. In the medium term, the expected improvement in the global economy will provide growth impetus. The SNB expects GDP growth of around 1% for 2026 and around 1.5% for 2027.
• Inflation in Switzerland rose from 0.1% in February to 0.6% in May. This increase is due to imported inflation, which rose markedly owing to the significantly higher prices for oil products. Inflation expectations were within the range consistent with price stability. However, short-term inflation expectations increased with the rise in energy prices.
• The economic outlook globally and for Switzerland remains subject to high uncertainty, above all because the situation in the Middle East is still fragile.
• Compared with mid-March, the yield curve for Confederation bonds hardly changed, while the Swiss franc depreciated somewhat. Prices on the Swiss stock market and for residential real estate rose. Growth momentum in the broad monetary aggregates and in mortgage lending stabilised.

Business cycle signals

Results of the SNB company talks
Second quarter of 2026

Report submitted to the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank for its quarterly monetary policy assessment. The appraisals presented here are based on discussions between the SNB's delegates for regional economic relations and members of management at companies throughout Switzerland. In its evaluation, the SNB aggregates and interprets the information received.

Key points

• According to the talks with company representatives, the Swiss economy grew solidly in the second quarter. Companies in the services and construction sectors saw robust growth in turnover. Turnover growth in manufacturing, by contrast, was only moderate. Some companies report that the situation in the Middle East is dampening the signs of recovery seen in the previous quarter.
• Companies remain confident and anticipate robust turnover growth in the coming quarters, albeit their expectations have come down to some extent from the very optimistic levels reported at the start of the year. Uncertainty is deemed to be high.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a significant impact on companies' purchase prices. The cost of importing intermediate goods is rising owing to higher energy and transport costs. Companies also expect sales prices to rise, albeit to a lesser extent than purchase prices.
• Companies' inflation expectations have risen noticeably for the short term but only slightly for the medium term. There has also been little change in wage expectations. Companies still anticipate only moderate wage increases in the coming year. The recruitment situation is described as comparatively easy.