Monetary policy report

Report for the attention of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank for its quarterly monetary policy assessment of September 2025

The report describes economic and monetary developments in Switzerland and explains the inflation forecast. It shows how the SNB views the economic situation and the implications for monetary policy it draws from this assessment.

Key points

• On 25 September 2025, the SNB decided to leave its policy rate at 0%. Inflationary pressure was virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development.
• Global economic growth slowed somewhat in the first half of 2025. Growth momentum is likely to be subdued over the coming quarters due to US tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty.
• Economic growth in Switzerland was weak in the second quarter. After increasing strongly in the first quarter, GDP expanded by just 0.5%. The economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to significantly higher US tariffs. The tariffs are likely to dampen exports and investment especially.
• There is still high uncertainty about the economic outlook for the world and for Switzerland, particularly against the backdrop of trade policy developments.
• Inflation in Switzerland rose from - 0.1% in May to 0.2% in August, mainly as a result of price developments for imported goods and in tourism. Inflation expectations were largely unchanged and within the range consistent with price stability.
• The Swiss franc appreciated against the US dollar. Yields on long-term Confederation bonds declined marginally. Swiss share prices saw only little change. Growth in residential real estate prices and mortgage lending was stronger than in the previous quarter. Growth in the broad monetary aggregates picked up pace.

Business cycle signals

Results of the SNB company talks
Third quarter of 2025

Report submitted to the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank for its quarterly monetary policy assessment. The appraisals presented here are based on discussions between the SNB's delegates for regional economic relations and members of management at companies throughout Switzerland. In its evaluation, the SNB aggregates and interprets the information received.

Key points

• Based on the SNB's talks with company representatives, growth in the Swiss economy was solid overall in the third quarter. This growth was driven mainly by the services sector and construction. Companies in manufacturing also see signs of an upturn.
• However, these positive tendencies are being overshadowed by the US tariffs. Although the increase in tariffs in August has not yet had a significant impact on the development of turnover, it is hitting parts of manufacturing hard and is calling into question their competitiveness in the US sales market.
• In the services sector and construction, capacity utilisation and margins are largely stable and in line with the long-term average. In manufacturing, both personnel and technical capacity remain significantly underutilised and profit margins are under pressure.
• The business outlook is deteriorating. Companies, above all in manufacturing, anticipate only modest increases in turnover. Manufacturing companies visited after 1 August in particular are significantly less confident. In addition, companies report considerable uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.