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Dollar dominance: A source of dollar volatility?

13 May 2026
Cara Bordier
Lukas Frei
Simon Stalder
Issue 2026-05

Summary

The US dollar (USD) is involved in 88% of global foreign exchange transactions, partly due to its role as a vehicle currency. Using high-frequency data from primary interdealer platforms, we develop a novel methodology to identify USD cross-trades. We show both theoretically and empirically that such trades can generate price fluctuations in USD exchange rates. Employing an instrumental variables approach, we find that increased cross-trading activity amplifies aggregate USD volatility. These results highlight a fundamental trade-off: while dollar dominance enhances market liquidity, it also increases the currency’s exposure to shocks originating in other currency pairs.

Issue:
05
Pages:
73
JEL classification:
F31, G12, G14, G15
Keywords:
Dollar dominance, Volatility, Foreign exchange markets, High-frequency trading
Year:
2026

Author(s)

  • Cara Bordier

  • Lukas Frei

  • Simon Stalder

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