Header

How resilient are decentralised markets? Insights from a CME outage into FX market functioning

23 February 2026
Vincent Barthe
Lukas Frei
Thomas Maag
Issue 2026-02

Summary

On 28 November 2025, the failure of a single Chicago-based data centre disrupted several global financial markets. The foreign exchange (FX) market was among those affected as its most important trading venue for futures contracts as well as a key primary venue became unavailable. The outage provided a natural experiment, shedding light on the impact of the trading halt on market functioning and the resilience of the decentralised FX market. We find that trading on secondary venues and with banks continued, demonstrating how decentralisation can enhance resilience. However, transaction costs increased considerably, mainly because FX futures prices became unavailable. This indicates that price signals from transparent venues remain essential for price discovery in the FX market.

Issue:
02
Pages:
8
Keywords:
Market structure, Foreign exchange, Decentralised markets, Price discovery, Market outage
Year:
2026

Author(s)

  • Vincent Barthe

  • Lukas Frei

  • Thomas Maag

Your settings

Required: These cookies (e.g. for storing your IP address) cannot be rejected as they are necessary to ensure the operation of the website. These data are not evaluated further.
Analytics: If you consent to this category, data such as IP address, location, device information, browser version and site visitor behaviour will be collected. For this, cookies will be stored on your device that record information about your user behaviour. These data are evaluated for the SNB's internal purposes and are kept for two years.
Third-party: If you consent to this category, third-party services (used, for example, to add social multimedia content to the SNB's website) will be activated which collect personal data, process these data, disclose them abroad - worldwide - and place cookies. The relevant data protection regulations are linked in the 'Privacy statement for the website of the Swiss National Bank'.

Choose your preferred settings:

This website uses cookies, analytics tools and other technologies to provide requested features, content and services, to personalise the content shown, to provide links to social media, and to analyse the use of the website in anonymised form for the purposes of improving usability. Personal data are also disclosed abroad - worldwide - to video service providers and the analytics tools of these providers are used. More information is available under 'Manage settings'.