Report for the attention of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank for its quarterly monetary policy assessment of September 2026

The report describes economic and monetary developments in Switzerland and explains the inflation forecast. It shows how the SNB views the economic situation and the implications for monetary policy it draws from this assessment.

Key points

• On 24 September 2026, the SNB decided to leave its policy rate at 0%. Medium-term inflationary pressure had increased only slightly compared to June. Monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB is also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
• Global economic growth was stronger than expected in the second quarter of 2026. While higher energy prices did weigh on economic activity to some extent, the global economy remained resilient overall. Inflation is above central banks’ targets in many countries, and it is likely to remain elevated for some time.
• Swiss GDP growth was exceptionally strong in the second quarter of 2026. An unusually robust performance in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry meant that GDP overstated the underlying growth momentum. However, even without this effect, growth was solid and broad-based. The SNB expects GDP growth of between 1.5% and 2% for 2026 as a whole, and around 1.5% for 2027.
• As expected, inflation in Switzerland rose from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August. This increase was due to imported inflation, which rose markedly owing to the fact that prices for oil products were once again significantly higher. Short-term inflation expectations declined again somewhat following a significant increase in the previous quarter. Longer-term inflation expectations were virtually unchanged. Overall, inflation expectations were within the range consistent with price stability.
• The economic outlook globally and for Switzerland remains subject to high uncertainty, above all because of the situation in the Middle East.
• Compared with mid-June, the yield curve for Confederation bonds shifted upwards. The Swiss franc depreciated against the currencies of major trading partners. While prices on the Swiss stock market were close to their June levels, residential real estate prices continued to rise. Growth in the broad monetary aggregates slowed. There was scarcely any change in lending growth.

Business cycle signals

Results of the SNB company talks
Third quarter of 2026

Report submitted to the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank for its quarterly monetary policy assessment. The appraisals presented here are based on discussions between the SNB's delegates for regional economic relations and members of management at companies throughout Switzerland. In its evaluation, the SNB aggregates and interprets the information received.

Key points

• According to the talks with company representatives, the Swiss economy grew robustly in the third quarter. Business activity in manufacturing is gathering pace, while services companies continue to show solid momentum. Order books in the construction industry remain full.
• Companies anticipate a robust rise in turnover in the coming quarters as well. They regard the uncertainty around turnover growth as being lower than in the previous quarter.
• For the first time in several quarters, staff levels are said to be somewhat too low and companies plan to increase hiring in the coming quarters. Finding new staff is easier than usual. Wage increases are likely to average 1.3% in 2027, following 1.5% this year.
• Companies are facing rising transport costs and a procurement situation that remains slightly more difficult. There are, for example, longer delivery times for some petroleum-based products and electronic components, and price momentum is elevated.