Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?
October 6, 2017
Summary
In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.
- Issue:
- 12
- Pages:
- 60
- JEL classification:
- C23, C53, E37, E58, D8
- Keywords:
- Central bank transparency, central bank communication, central bank independence, inflation targeting, forward guidance, macroeconomic forecasts, financial forecasts, panel data models with truncated data
- Year:
- 2017
