Financial crisis dispersing? Economy changing direction?

August 25, 2009
Generalversammlung, Handels- und Industrieverein des Kantons Schwyz, Schwyz


The situation on the international financial markets has recently brightened again. This is mainly due to the positive keynote in company earnings reports and a series of unexpectedly favourable economic data. The relaxation of monetary policy was pursued further through the implementation of unconventional measures in March 2009, and this is also likely to have had a calming effect. Price advances since March should, however, be partly seen as corrections to excessive downward movements in the previous period. Considerable uncertainties still prevail and the danger of setbacks should not be carelessly underestimated.

The recessionary developments in the world economy weakened significantly in the second quarter of 2009. Expansionary monetary policy around the world, together with fiscal support programmes, have probably played an important role in this respect. Economic indicators are also showing a turn for the better in the Swiss economy. Nevertheless, in view of the exceedingly low level of utilisation of production capacity, industrial investment will probably continue falling. Given the increasingly gloomy outlook for employment, private consumption is also likely to put a damper on the resumption of cyclical activity. Consequently, the current overall situation of the Swiss economy remains difficult despite the many rays of hope with regard to the economic cycle. Also, the danger of deflation does not yet seem to have been entirely averted.

We have not yet reached the moment for a change of direction in monetary policy in Switzerland. After analysing the available economic data and forecasts and taking various risk considerations into account, there is no need for the SNB to take monetary policy action at present. The SNB can afford to adopt a holding stance. However, this holding stance should not be mistaken for inactivity. The SNB continues its firm implementation of an extremely expansionary monetary policy and the unconventional measures launched on 12 March 2009. The Swiss franc money market is still being provided with a generous and flexible supply of liquidity, interest rates remain low, Swiss franc bonds are still being purchased to dampen the level of risk premiums on the Swiss franc bond market as and when needed and the appreciation of the Swiss franc will continue to be prevented.

Download file now

The file can be downloaded with the button below.

Additional files

Related content


  • Thomas Jordan
    Member of the Governing Board

Your settings

Required: These cookies (e.g. for storing your IP address) cannot be rejected as they are necessary to ensure the operation of the website. These data are not evaluated further.
Analytics: If you consent to this category, data such as IP address, location, device information, browser version and site visitor behaviour will be collected. These data are evaluated for the SNB's internal purposes and are kept for two years.
Third-party: If you consent to this category, third-party services (used, for example, to add social multimedia content to the SNB's website) will be activated which collect personal data, process these data, disclose them abroad - worldwide - and place cookies. The relevant data protection regulations are linked in the 'Privacy statement for the website of the Swiss National Bank'.

Choose your preferred settings:

This website uses cookies, analytics tools and other technologies to provide requested features, content and services, to personalise the content shown, to provide links to social media, and to analyse the use of the website in anonymised form for the purposes of improving usability. Personal data are also disclosed abroad - worldwide - to video service providers and the analytics tools of these providers are used. More information is available under 'Manage settings'.