Financial inclusion, technology and their impacts on monetary and fiscal policy: theory and evidence

Dr. Robert Oleschak

Issue
2021-04

Pages
37

JEL classification
C12, C22, E31, E41, G21, H21

Keywords
Financial inclusion, financial technology, monetary policy, fiscal policy

Year
2021

In economies with a low level of financial inclusion (FI), most activities are settled in cash and are thus more difficult to trace, record, and tax. I show theoretically that economies with inefficient financial technologies exhibit low levels of FI and of tax revenue and that using an inflation tax as an additional source of income improves welfare. Improvements in technology lead to a higher level of FI, increased tax revenue and lower (optimal) inflation. I test this prediction using panel data from a broad set of countries. The data show a strong and robust negative link between FI and inflation and a positive link between FI and tax revenue for developing countries.