https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/research Swiss National Bank Working Papers present research in progress. Their aim is to elicit comments and to further debate. The opinions expressed in the working papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views held by the Swiss National Bank. Swiss National Bank Economic Studies address a range of economic and financial subjects that are related to the Swiss National Bank's tasks. The analyses and conclusions set forth are those of the authors. The fact that they are published in this series does not necessarily mean that they are endorsed by the Swiss National Bank. SNB 2026-10-12T16:34:12Z Copyright © Swiss National Bank, Zurich (Switzerland) 2026 2026-10-12T16:34:12Z https://www.snb.ch/en/srv/disclaimer https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_07 Financial market infrastructures depend critically on communication networks that remain available and secure even during outages and cyber-attacks. SCION is an internet architecture that strengthens resilience by giving users greater control over network paths and allowing traffic to switch rapidly between independently operated providers. The Secure Swiss Finance Network (SSFN), launched by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and SIX in 2021, shows that this approach works in practice. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_07 A secure network for financial infrastructure: SCION and the Secure Swiss Finance Network (SSFN) 2026-10-06T22:00:00Z SNB Financial market infrastructures SCION SSFN Cyber security A secure network for financial infrastructure: SCION and the Secure Swiss Finance Network (SSFN) https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_07 Financial market infrastructures depend critically on communication networks that remain available and secure even during outages and cyber-attacks. SCION is an internet architecture that strengthens resilience by giving users greater control over network paths and allowing traffic to switch rapidly between independently operated providers. The Secure Swiss Finance Network (SSFN), launched by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and SIX in 2021, shows that this approach works in practice. William Boye William Boye Thomas Moser Thomas Moser William Boye and Thomas Moser 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-07 2026-10-06T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_12 Can cash infrastructure mitigate the adverse effects of a card payment system outage? As cashless payment systems become increasingly prevalent, societies are becoming more vulnerable to technical disruptions such as card payment system outages. This paper investigates a one-day nationwide card payment system outage at a major retailer in Switzerland. To quantify the loss in card sales at the retailer's stores and the increase in cash withdrawals at ATMs, we generate granular counterfactuals by forecasting card payments and cash withdrawals at the store and ATM level. We then use residual-on-residual regressions to control for high-dimensional confounders and estimate the causal effect of outage-induced card payment losses on ATM withdrawals in an event-study framework. Our district-level results suggest that for every 100 lost card payments, there were 11 additional ATM withdrawals. In value terms, for every CHF 100 loss in card payments, ATM withdrawals increased by approximately CHF 68. We also find only limited evidence of increased card payments at competing stores during the outage or at outage-affected stores on the day after the outage. Our findings suggest that cash infrastructure can serve as a resilience buffer during card payment system outages and that consumers rely on cash as their primary fallback payment instrument. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_12 Cash saves the day: How cash infrastructure enhances resilience during a card payment system outage 2026-09-15T22:00:00Z SNB Card payments ATM withdrawals Resilience Payment system risk Forecasting Cash saves the day: How cash infrastructure enhances resilience during a card payment system outage https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_12 Can cash infrastructure mitigate the adverse effects of a card payment system outage? As cashless payment systems become increasingly prevalent, societies are becoming more vulnerable to technical disruptions such as card payment system outages. This paper investigates a one-day nationwide card payment system outage at a major retailer in Switzerland. To quantify the loss in card sales at the retailer's stores and the increase in cash withdrawals at ATMs, we generate granular counterfactuals by forecasting card payments and cash withdrawals at the store and ATM level. We then use residual-on-residual regressions to control for high-dimensional confounders and estimate the causal effect of outage-induced card payment losses on ATM withdrawals in an event-study framework. Our district-level results suggest that for every 100 lost card payments, there were 11 additional ATM withdrawals. In value terms, for every CHF 100 loss in card payments, ATM withdrawals increased by approximately CHF 68. We also find only limited evidence of increased card payments at competing stores during the outage or at outage-affected stores on the day after the outage. Our findings suggest that cash infrastructure can serve as a resilience buffer during card payment system outages and that consumers rely on cash as their primary fallback payment instrument. Aurel Ruben Mäder Aurel Ruben Mäder Christoph Meyer Christoph Meyer Yves Nacht Yves Nacht Daniel Gatica-Perez Daniel Gatica-Perez Aurel Ruben Mäder, Christoph Meyer, Yves Nacht and Daniel Gatica-Perez 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-12 C55 D12 E42 G28 2026-09-15T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_06 Over the past 15 years, inflation in Switzerland has, on average, been almost 2 percentage points lower than in the euro area. This note shows that two-thirds of the Swiss inflation gap with the euro area was driven by goods, in particular food and energy, while the remaining third was driven by services. The note also shows that inflation was lower in Switzerland than in the euro area primarily because of smaller price increases rather than different consumption habits. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_06 What is keeping inflation in Switzerland lower than in the euro area? A product group perspective 2026-09-13T22:00:00Z SNB Inflation Switzerland Euro area Consumer prices Consumption basket What is keeping inflation in Switzerland lower than in the euro area? A product group perspective https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_06 Over the past 15 years, inflation in Switzerland has, on average, been almost 2 percentage points lower than in the euro area. This note shows that two-thirds of the Swiss inflation gap with the euro area was driven by goods, in particular food and energy, while the remaining third was driven by services. The note also shows that inflation was lower in Switzerland than in the euro area primarily because of smaller price increases rather than different consumption habits. Simone Auer Simone Auer Simone Auer 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-06 2026-09-13T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_11 This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy announcements (MPAs) on household inflation expectations using microdata from the Swiss Consumer Sentiment Survey. Employing an event study approach, we reveal an asymmetric response: while policy rate hikes or decisions to keep rates constant reduce household inflation expectations, rate cuts fail to elicit a reaction. The effect is particularly robust for short-term expectations, with a much less clear-cut influence on long-term expectations. Households across the expectation distribution - both moderate and extreme - react to announcements, indicating a broad impact. We find that household reactions are driven primarily by the anticipated component of policy rate changes, whereas surprising moves tend to be interpreted as signals of new information regarding inflationary pressure. Finally, we report that demographic heterogeneity matters: the effect of MPAs is driven by German-speaking households and tertiary-educated individuals, while others show no consistent response, underscoring the importance of targeted communication strategies for effective monetary policy transmission. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_11 Do Swiss households revise their inflation expectations after monetary policy announcements? 2026-09-08T22:00:00Z SNB Household inflation expectations Household heterogeneity Event study Monetary policy Central bank communication Reaction to news Do Swiss households revise their inflation expectations after monetary policy announcements? https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_11 This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy announcements (MPAs) on household inflation expectations using microdata from the Swiss Consumer Sentiment Survey. Employing an event study approach, we reveal an asymmetric response: while policy rate hikes or decisions to keep rates constant reduce household inflation expectations, rate cuts fail to elicit a reaction. The effect is particularly robust for short-term expectations, with a much less clear-cut influence on long-term expectations. Households across the expectation distribution - both moderate and extreme - react to announcements, indicating a broad impact. We find that household reactions are driven primarily by the anticipated component of policy rate changes, whereas surprising moves tend to be interpreted as signals of new information regarding inflationary pressure. Finally, we report that demographic heterogeneity matters: the effect of MPAs is driven by German-speaking households and tertiary-educated individuals, while others show no consistent response, underscoring the importance of targeted communication strategies for effective monetary policy transmission. Alexander Goetz Alexander Goetz Lucas Kyriacou Lucas Kyriacou Florence Miguet Heimlicher Florence Miguet Heimlicher Stefanie Siegrist Stefanie Siegrist Alexander Goetz, Lucas Kyriacou, Florence Miguet Heimlicher and Stefanie Siegrist 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-11 E31 E52 E71 D84 2026-09-08T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_10 While money has evolved from natural commodities to digital tokens, the debate about the ideal money has remained the same throughout the ages. Historical controversies about the origin, nature, and double-spending of money offer valuable insights for navigating the new forms of money tokens such as cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies and stablecoins. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_10 Yesterday's controversies for tomorrow's money 2026-08-24T22:00:00Z SNB Natural law of money State theory of money Economic good theory of money Credit theory of money Double-spending of money Yesterday's controversies for tomorrow's money https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_10 While money has evolved from natural commodities to digital tokens, the debate about the ideal money has remained the same throughout the ages. Historical controversies about the origin, nature, and double-spending of money offer valuable insights for navigating the new forms of money tokens such as cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies and stablecoins. Romain Baeriswyl Romain Baeriswyl Romain Baeriswyl 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-10 E40 E42 E50 2026-08-24T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_09 The general search for US dollars in forward currency markets, combined with the balance-sheet constraints of intermediary dealers, induces persistent failure of covered interest parity (CIP). We investigate these CIP deviations across the entire maturity spectrum by analyzing the daily dynamics of the USD/CHF cross-currency basis curve. Applying functional principal component analysis, we identify three components that explain virtually all curve dynamics: a persistent, slow-moving level component, a temporary steepener, and a short-end component inducing sharp basis widenings and contractions around quarter-end dates. We provide empirical evidence that CIP-implied carry opportunities and US monetary policy announcements widen the entire basis curve, whereas Fed swap line announcements tend to narrow it. During periods of global turmoil, the slope inverts in response to rising credit and capital stress among dealer banks, while funding stress steepens the curve as swap line usage mitigates short-end distortions. Reporting date effects, funding stress, and deteriorating market liquidity widen the basis primarily at the short- end. We further show that regulatory reporting dates generate systematic window-dressing distortions not only at the short end but also in the slope of the basis curve. This effect has weakened since 2022, which is consistent with recent changes in the regulatory landscape. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_09 CIP violations as functional components of the dynamic cross-currency basis curve 2026-07-08T22:00:00Z SNB Covered interest parity FX swaps Cross-currency basis Limits to arbitrage US dollar funding CIP violations as functional components of the dynamic cross-currency basis curve https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_09 The general search for US dollars in forward currency markets, combined with the balance-sheet constraints of intermediary dealers, induces persistent failure of covered interest parity (CIP). We investigate these CIP deviations across the entire maturity spectrum by analyzing the daily dynamics of the USD/CHF cross-currency basis curve. Applying functional principal component analysis, we identify three components that explain virtually all curve dynamics: a persistent, slow-moving level component, a temporary steepener, and a short-end component inducing sharp basis widenings and contractions around quarter-end dates. We provide empirical evidence that CIP-implied carry opportunities and US monetary policy announcements widen the entire basis curve, whereas Fed swap line announcements tend to narrow it. During periods of global turmoil, the slope inverts in response to rising credit and capital stress among dealer banks, while funding stress steepens the curve as swap line usage mitigates short-end distortions. Reporting date effects, funding stress, and deteriorating market liquidity widen the basis primarily at the short- end. We further show that regulatory reporting dates generate systematic window-dressing distortions not only at the short end but also in the slope of the basis curve. This effect has weakened since 2022, which is consistent with recent changes in the regulatory landscape. David Borner David Borner Heiko Sorg Heiko Sorg David Borner and Heiko Sorg 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-09 F31 G15 G2 2026-07-08T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_08 We present a microfounded information mechanism that causes monetary policy transmission lags to be endogenously variable, even when firms are rational and face no exogenous costs of changing prices. Firms must form two distinct expectations, namely, a forecast of future demand and a nowcast of the current unobserved state, because information arrives at different frequencies. We model this setting as a partial-equilibrium, continuous-time optimal stopping problem in which firms receive a continuous noisy signal and a discrete precise signal. Because exercising the timing option to reprice has a sunk opportunity cost, an endogenous inaction region emerges; firms rationally delay adjustment until the discrete signal provides sufficient actionable information. The resulting dynamics reproduce observed Swiss price-adjustment patterns and the highly variable transmission lags of monetary policy. Thus, the framework provides a rational-agent microfoundation for lag heterogeneity. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_08 Forecasts, nowcasts and monetary policy lags 2026-07-07T22:00:00Z SNB Information frictions State-dependent pricing Monetary policy lags Forecasts, nowcasts and monetary policy lags https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_08 We present a microfounded information mechanism that causes monetary policy transmission lags to be endogenously variable, even when firms are rational and face no exogenous costs of changing prices. Firms must form two distinct expectations, namely, a forecast of future demand and a nowcast of the current unobserved state, because information arrives at different frequencies. We model this setting as a partial-equilibrium, continuous-time optimal stopping problem in which firms receive a continuous noisy signal and a discrete precise signal. Because exercising the timing option to reprice has a sunk opportunity cost, an endogenous inaction region emerges; firms rationally delay adjustment until the discrete signal provides sufficient actionable information. The resulting dynamics reproduce observed Swiss price-adjustment patterns and the highly variable transmission lags of monetary policy. Thus, the framework provides a rational-agent microfoundation for lag heterogeneity. Diego M. Hager Diego M. Hager Samuel Reynard Samuel Reynard Diego M. Hager and Samuel Reynard 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-08 E31 E52 D84 2026-07-07T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_07 The utilisation rate of technical capacity is a key indicator of an economy's cyclical position and plays a crucial role in the estimation of production functions. Despite its importance, economy-wide measures of capacity utilisation are often not available. Instead, single sector series, typically that for manufacturing, are used as a proxy. However, this approach overlooks the heterogeneity of sectoral developments. Using Swiss data, we develop a methodology to estimate a series of aggregate capacity utilisation. Our measure covers eleven sectors, accounting for two thirds of the economy, and is mostly based on survey data retropolated back to Q1 1995. The sectoral shares of the capital stock are used to aggregate the sectoral capacity utilisation series. Several evaluations show that our aggregate series provides valuable information for the analysis of overall economic activity and is superior to the use of manufacturing capacity utilisation. Our methodology can serve as a basis for the construction of an aggregate capacity utilisation rate series for other countries. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_07 Economy-wide capacity utilisation rate: Methodological framework and application to Swiss data 2026-07-06T22:00:00Z SNB Capacity utilisation Business cycle indicator Aggregation Switzerland Economy-wide capacity utilisation rate: Methodological framework and application to Swiss data https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_07 The utilisation rate of technical capacity is a key indicator of an economy's cyclical position and plays a crucial role in the estimation of production functions. Despite its importance, economy-wide measures of capacity utilisation are often not available. Instead, single sector series, typically that for manufacturing, are used as a proxy. However, this approach overlooks the heterogeneity of sectoral developments. Using Swiss data, we develop a methodology to estimate a series of aggregate capacity utilisation. Our measure covers eleven sectors, accounting for two thirds of the economy, and is mostly based on survey data retropolated back to Q1 1995. The sectoral shares of the capital stock are used to aggregate the sectoral capacity utilisation series. Several evaluations show that our aggregate series provides valuable information for the analysis of overall economic activity and is superior to the use of manufacturing capacity utilisation. Our methodology can serve as a basis for the construction of an aggregate capacity utilisation rate series for other countries. Andreas Bachmann Andreas Bachmann Elizabeth Steiner Elizabeth Steiner Andreas Bachmann and Elizabeth Steiner 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-07 E22 E30 C43 2026-07-06T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_06 Drawing on a novel dataset of more than 10,000 speeches from 1914 to 2024, we track the evolution of Federal Reserve communication and identify three stylized facts. (1) Although the overall volume of speeches has declined over the past decade, the composition of Fed communication has remained notably consistent for forty years, with Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) presidents accounting for the majority of public engagements. Variation in communicative participation is driven primarily by dispositional factors, including professional background, gender, and other speaker-specific idiosyncrasies, rather than the particular time frame in which the speeches were delivered. (2) While governors' communication reacts to financial stability, FRB presidents' schedules remain decoupled from both regional shifts in their districts and broader macroindicators. (3) A "complexity paradox" has emerged: while the syntactic structure simplifies during crises, the conceptual density increases. When adjusted for abstractness, the communication patterns of governors and FRB presidents appear remarkably similar. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_06 Central bank communication: New data and stylized facts from a century of Fed speeches 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z SNB Federal Reserve System Central bank communication Content analysis Language complexity Central bank communication: New data and stylized facts from a century of Fed speeches https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_06 Drawing on a novel dataset of more than 10,000 speeches from 1914 to 2024, we track the evolution of Federal Reserve communication and identify three stylized facts. (1) Although the overall volume of speeches has declined over the past decade, the composition of Fed communication has remained notably consistent for forty years, with Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) presidents accounting for the majority of public engagements. Variation in communicative participation is driven primarily by dispositional factors, including professional background, gender, and other speaker-specific idiosyncrasies, rather than the particular time frame in which the speeches were delivered. (2) While governors' communication reacts to financial stability, FRB presidents' schedules remain decoupled from both regional shifts in their districts and broader macroindicators. (3) A "complexity paradox" has emerged: while the syntactic structure simplifies during crises, the conceptual density increases. When adjusted for abstractness, the communication patterns of governors and FRB presidents appear remarkably similar. Thomas Lustenberger Thomas Lustenberger Enzo Rossi Enzo Rossi Anna Zeitz Anna Zeitz Thomas Lustenberger, Enzo Rossi and Anna Zeitz 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-06 E52 E58 D83 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_05 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_05 Jüngste Entwicklungen am Franken-Anleihenmarkt 2026-05-20T22:00:00Z SNB Kapitalmarkt Franken-Anleihenmarkt Jüngste Entwicklungen am Franken-Anleihenmarkt https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_05 Dirk Faltin Dirk Faltin Simon Hänni Simon Hänni Dirk Faltin and Simon Hänni 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-05 2026-05-20T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_05 The US dollar (USD) is involved in 88% of global foreign exchange transactions, partly due to its role as a vehicle currency. Using high-frequency data from primary interdealer platforms, we develop a novel methodology to identify USD cross-trades. We show both theoretically and empirically that such trades can generate price fluctuations in USD exchange rates. Employing an instrumental variables approach, we find that increased cross-trading activity amplifies aggregate USD volatility. These results highlight a fundamental trade-off: while dollar dominance enhances market liquidity, it also increases the currency’s exposure to shocks originating in other currency pairs. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_05 Dollar dominance: A source of dollar volatility? 2026-05-12T22:00:00Z SNB Dollar dominance Volatility Foreign exchange markets High-frequency trading Dollar dominance: A source of dollar volatility? https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_05 The US dollar (USD) is involved in 88% of global foreign exchange transactions, partly due to its role as a vehicle currency. Using high-frequency data from primary interdealer platforms, we develop a novel methodology to identify USD cross-trades. We show both theoretically and empirically that such trades can generate price fluctuations in USD exchange rates. Employing an instrumental variables approach, we find that increased cross-trading activity amplifies aggregate USD volatility. These results highlight a fundamental trade-off: while dollar dominance enhances market liquidity, it also increases the currency’s exposure to shocks originating in other currency pairs. Cara Bordier Cara Bordier Lukas Frei Lukas Frei Simon Stalder Simon Stalder Cara Bordier, Lukas Frei and Simon Stalder 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-05 F31 G12 G14 G15 2026-05-12T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_04 The SNB steers secured short-term interest rates by remunerating sight deposits and conducting open market operations, specifically repo transactions and the issuance of SNB Bills. These operations absorb sight deposits from the financial system to keep SARON, the most important secured short-term rate, close to the SNB policy rate. The design of repo transactions anchors SARON while supporting interbank market activity. SNB Bills strengthen monetary policy transmission to a wider range of short-term rates, as they can be purchased by a broad set of financial market participants. Issuing SNB Bills also allows the SNB to create collateral for its repo transactions. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_04 Implementing monetary policy with repos and SNB Bills 2026-04-22T22:00:00Z SNB SNB Monetary policy implementation Interest rate steering Repos SNB Bills Implementing monetary policy with repos and SNB Bills https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_04 The SNB steers secured short-term interest rates by remunerating sight deposits and conducting open market operations, specifically repo transactions and the issuance of SNB Bills. These operations absorb sight deposits from the financial system to keep SARON, the most important secured short-term rate, close to the SNB policy rate. The design of repo transactions anchors SARON while supporting interbank market activity. SNB Bills strengthen monetary policy transmission to a wider range of short-term rates, as they can be purchased by a broad set of financial market participants. Issuing SNB Bills also allows the SNB to create collateral for its repo transactions. Damien Klossner Damien Klossner Christian Myohl Christian Myohl Sabrina Stadelmann Sabrina Stadelmann Damien Klossner, Christian Myohl and Sabrina Stadelmann 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-04 2026-04-22T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_03 In modern economies, uniformity of money is often taken for granted. However, uniformity did not always hold in the past, and new developments - such as the decline in the use of cash for payments or the emergence of new forms of private digital money - may pose challenges. This economic note explores these challenges, draws lessons from the past, and discusses potential measures for authorities to support uniformity. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_03 Uniformity of money - new challenges and lessons from the past 2026-04-01T22:00:00Z SNB Uniformity Singleness Money Digital money Stablecoins Central banks Regulation Trust Settlement Convertibility Cash Uniformity of money - new challenges and lessons from the past https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_03 In modern economies, uniformity of money is often taken for granted. However, uniformity did not always hold in the past, and new developments - such as the decline in the use of cash for payments or the emergence of new forms of private digital money - may pose challenges. This economic note explores these challenges, draws lessons from the past, and discusses potential measures for authorities to support uniformity. Severin Bernhard Severin Bernhard Philipp Haene Philipp Haene Severin Bernhard and Philipp Haene 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-03 2026-04-01T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_02 On 28 November 2025, the failure of a single Chicago-based data centre disrupted several global financial markets. The foreign exchange (FX) market was among those affected as its most important trading venue for futures contracts as well as a key primary venue became unavailable. The outage provided a natural experiment, shedding light on the impact of the trading halt on market functioning and the resilience of the decentralised FX market. We find that trading on secondary venues and with banks continued, demonstrating how decentralisation can enhance resilience. However, transaction costs increased considerably, mainly because FX futures prices became unavailable. This indicates that price signals from transparent venues remain essential for price discovery in the FX market. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_02 How resilient are decentralised markets? Insights from a CME outage into FX market functioning 2026-02-22T23:00:00Z SNB Market structure Foreign exchange Decentralised markets Price discovery Market outage How resilient are decentralised markets? Insights from a CME outage into FX market functioning https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_02 On 28 November 2025, the failure of a single Chicago-based data centre disrupted several global financial markets. The foreign exchange (FX) market was among those affected as its most important trading venue for futures contracts as well as a key primary venue became unavailable. The outage provided a natural experiment, shedding light on the impact of the trading halt on market functioning and the resilience of the decentralised FX market. We find that trading on secondary venues and with banks continued, demonstrating how decentralisation can enhance resilience. However, transaction costs increased considerably, mainly because FX futures prices became unavailable. This indicates that price signals from transparent venues remain essential for price discovery in the FX market. Vincent Barthe Vincent Barthe Lukas Frei Lukas Frei Thomas Maag Thomas Maag Vincent Barthe, Lukas Frei and Thomas Maag 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-02 2026-02-22T23:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_01 This note presents the News-based Economic Outlook for Switzerland (NEOS), a timely indicator for the sentiment regarding the economic outlook based on a comprehensive sample of Swiss newspaper articles. The indicator combines machine learning methods and large language models to assess macroeconomic developments in real time. We illustrate the use of NEOS by showing how U.S. tariff announcements shifted the sentiment regarding the economic outlook in Swiss news. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_01 NEOS - A timely indicator for economic outlook based on Swiss newspaper articles 2026-02-19T23:00:00Z SNB Sentiment analysis Economic outlook Forecasting Big data Large language models Natural language processing Neural networks NEOS - A timely indicator for economic outlook based on Swiss newspaper articles https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2026/economic_note_2026_01 This note presents the News-based Economic Outlook for Switzerland (NEOS), a timely indicator for the sentiment regarding the economic outlook based on a comprehensive sample of Swiss newspaper articles. The indicator combines machine learning methods and large language models to assess macroeconomic developments in real time. We illustrate the use of NEOS by showing how U.S. tariff announcements shifted the sentiment regarding the economic outlook in Swiss news. Elliot Beck Elliot Beck Franziska Eckert Franziska Eckert Linus Kühne Linus Kühne Helge Liebert Helge Liebert Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch Elliot Beck, Franziska Eckert, Linus Kühne, Helge Liebert and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch 2026 SNB Economic Studies 2026-01 2026-02-19T23:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_04 We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting indicator significantly improves GDP growth forecast accuracy and captures sentiment shifts weeks before official releases, proving particularly valuable during crises. The indicator outperforms both survey-based benchmarks and traditional dictionary methods and is interpretable, allowing identification of specific drivers of economic sentiment. Our approach addresses key institutional constraints: it performs sentiment classification locally, enabling analyses of proprietary news content without transmission to external services while requiring minimal computational resources compared to direct large language model classification. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_04 Measuring economic outlook in the news 2026-02-17T23:00:00Z SNB Sentiment analysis Economic outlook Forecasting Big data Large language models Natural language processing Neural networks Measuring economic outlook in the news https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_04 We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting indicator significantly improves GDP growth forecast accuracy and captures sentiment shifts weeks before official releases, proving particularly valuable during crises. The indicator outperforms both survey-based benchmarks and traditional dictionary methods and is interpretable, allowing identification of specific drivers of economic sentiment. Our approach addresses key institutional constraints: it performs sentiment classification locally, enabling analyses of proprietary news content without transmission to external services while requiring minimal computational resources compared to direct large language model classification. Elliot Beck Elliot Beck Franziska Eckert Franziska Eckert Linus Kühne Linus Kühne Helge Liebert Helge Liebert Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch Elliot Beck, Franziska Eckert, Linus Kühne, Helge Liebert and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-04 E66 C45 C55 2026-02-17T23:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_03 In a monetary system in which risk-free and risky money coexist, Gresham's law predicts that people will prefer to hoard risk-free money as a store of value and spend risky money as a medium of exchange. Establishing a payment system on the basis of risk-free money, such as a retail CBDC, while maintaining the fractional reserve banking system in place poses numerous challenges. In a laboratory experiment, we demonstrate that when the holding of risk-free money is unrestricted, people hold and pay with it extensively. However, when the ability to hold risk-free money is limited by a ceiling or an unattractive interest rate, people tend to hoard risk-free money and use risky money for payments. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_03 Central Bank Digital Currency and Gresham's law: An experimental analysis 2026-01-22T23:00:00Z SNB Central Bank Digital Currency Gresham's law Laboratory experiment Central Bank Digital Currency and Gresham's law: An experimental analysis https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_03 In a monetary system in which risk-free and risky money coexist, Gresham's law predicts that people will prefer to hoard risk-free money as a store of value and spend risky money as a medium of exchange. Establishing a payment system on the basis of risk-free money, such as a retail CBDC, while maintaining the fractional reserve banking system in place poses numerous challenges. In a laboratory experiment, we demonstrate that when the holding of risk-free money is unrestricted, people hold and pay with it extensively. However, when the ability to hold risk-free money is limited by a ceiling or an unattractive interest rate, people tend to hoard risk-free money and use risky money for payments. Romain Baeriswyl Romain Baeriswyl Kene Boun My Kene Boun My Camille Cornand Camille Cornand Romain Baeriswyl, Kene Boun My and Camille Cornand 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-03 E52 E58 2026-01-22T23:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_02 Rents are the largest component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in many countries, making accurate and timely measurements of rental price developments essential for inflation monitoring and policy decisions. Market (asking) rent indices are often available in near real-time and with high detail, but differ substantially from the rents paid by the overall tenant population, as typically measured in the CPI. This paper proposes a model to bridge the gap between asking and all-tenant rents. First, using rental-unit listings for Switzerland, we construct timely, granular, and high-frequency indices of asking rents. Second, using a probabilistic model that accounts for the duration of tenants' stays, we estimate all-tenant rents based on historical asking rents. Additionally, we incorporate rent changes during ongoing tenancies. For Switzerland, this corresponds to adjustments permitted under Swiss tenancy law in response to changes in the mortgage reference rate and inflation. This allows us to provide weekly, real-time, and highly disaggregated estimates of all-tenant rents, which are highly correlated with the official quarterly survey-based rental index in the Swiss CPI. Our approach provides a tool for timely rental price monitoring and forecasting that can be adapted for use in other countries. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_02 From listings to all-tenant rents: A probabilistic model 2026-01-21T23:00:00Z SNB Asking rents Rent indices Duration model Shelter inflation From listings to all-tenant rents: A probabilistic model https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_02 Rents are the largest component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in many countries, making accurate and timely measurements of rental price developments essential for inflation monitoring and policy decisions. Market (asking) rent indices are often available in near real-time and with high detail, but differ substantially from the rents paid by the overall tenant population, as typically measured in the CPI. This paper proposes a model to bridge the gap between asking and all-tenant rents. First, using rental-unit listings for Switzerland, we construct timely, granular, and high-frequency indices of asking rents. Second, using a probabilistic model that accounts for the duration of tenants' stays, we estimate all-tenant rents based on historical asking rents. Additionally, we incorporate rent changes during ongoing tenancies. For Switzerland, this corresponds to adjustments permitted under Swiss tenancy law in response to changes in the mortgage reference rate and inflation. This allows us to provide weekly, real-time, and highly disaggregated estimates of all-tenant rents, which are highly correlated with the official quarterly survey-based rental index in the Swiss CPI. Our approach provides a tool for timely rental price monitoring and forecasting that can be adapted for use in other countries. Emanuel Nussli Emanuel Nussli Rachel Arulraj-Cordonier Rachel Arulraj-Cordonier Flurina Strasser Flurina Strasser Marko Nanut Petrič Marko Nanut Petrič Morten Bech Morten Bech Antonio Pipino Antonio Pipino Emanuel Nussli, Rachel Arulraj-Cordonier, Flurina Strasser, Marko Nanut Petrič, Morten Bech and Antonio Pipino 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-02 R31 E31 E37 2026-01-21T23:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_01 We present novel evidence on the global transmission of monetary policy (MP) surprises via bond funds. Using daily MP surprise measures and a multi-country panel of weekly fund flows, we document that bond fund flows respond systematically to MP surprises. The direction, intensity, and persistence of these responses, however, vary across destination countries, fund investment strategies, and fund domiciles. Furthermore, bond fund flows react not only to domestic MP surprises, but also to foreign MP surprises, indicating cross-border spillovers. We explore two mechanisms driving these responses: the relative importance of MP shocks versus information shocks, and the impact of exchange rate movements on portfolio rebalancing. Our findings highlight the role of nonbank financial intermediaries in global MP transmission. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_01 Heterogeneous effects of monetary policy surprises on bond fund flows 2026-01-12T23:00:00Z SNB NBFIs Bond funds Monetary policy surprises Cross-border spillovers Heterogeneous effects of monetary policy surprises on bond fund flows https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_01 We present novel evidence on the global transmission of monetary policy (MP) surprises via bond funds. Using daily MP surprise measures and a multi-country panel of weekly fund flows, we document that bond fund flows respond systematically to MP surprises. The direction, intensity, and persistence of these responses, however, vary across destination countries, fund investment strategies, and fund domiciles. Furthermore, bond fund flows react not only to domestic MP surprises, but also to foreign MP surprises, indicating cross-border spillovers. We explore two mechanisms driving these responses: the relative importance of MP shocks versus information shocks, and the impact of exchange rate movements on portfolio rebalancing. Our findings highlight the role of nonbank financial intermediaries in global MP transmission. Sébastien Blanco Sébastien Blanco Miriam Koomen Miriam Koomen Pinar Yesin Pinar Yesin Sébastien Blanco, Miriam Koomen and Pinar Yesin 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-01 G23 E52 E44 2026-01-12T23:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2025/economic_note_2025_14 The SNB implements its monetary policy by using several instruments, including repurchase agreement (repo) transactions. The SNB conducted test repo transactions involving tokenised assets and wholesale central bank digital currency. These so-called digital repos were settled on a distributed ledger technology (DLT) infrastructure. The tests revealed that settlement of repos on a DLT-based infrastructure is feasible, and provided insights into the corresponding challenges. Specifically, integrating a DLT-based infrastructure into today's money market as in the test setup presents challenges related to market fragmentation, the need for enhanced collateral management capabilities, and the harmonisation of communication standards. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2025/economic_note_2025_14 How can repurchase agreements be settled on a distributed ledger? Insights from the Helvetia pilot 2025-12-17T23:00:00Z SNB Swiss National Bank Repo market Distributed ledger technology Tokenised assets Wholesale central bank digital currency How can repurchase agreements be settled on a distributed ledger? Insights from the Helvetia pilot https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-notes/2025/economic_note_2025_14 The SNB implements its monetary policy by using several instruments, including repurchase agreement (repo) transactions. The SNB conducted test repo transactions involving tokenised assets and wholesale central bank digital currency. These so-called digital repos were settled on a distributed ledger technology (DLT) infrastructure. The tests revealed that settlement of repos on a DLT-based infrastructure is feasible, and provided insights into the corresponding challenges. Specifically, integrating a DLT-based infrastructure into today's money market as in the test setup presents challenges related to market fragmentation, the need for enhanced collateral management capabilities, and the harmonisation of communication standards. Florian Böser Florian Böser Rebecca Gerosa Rebecca Gerosa Florian Böser and Rebecca Gerosa 2025 SNB Economic Studies 2025-14 2025-12-17T23:00:00Z en