https://www.snb.ch/en/news-publications/news News on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) website SNB 2026-07-12T14:47:01Z Copyright © Swiss National Bank, Zurich (Switzerland) 2026 2026-07-12T14:47:01Z https://www.snb.ch/en/srv/disclaimer https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260709_anmar https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260709_anmar How resilient are decentralised markets? 2026-07-09T16:00:00Z SNB How resilient are decentralised markets? https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260709_anmar Antoine Martin Vice Chairman of the Governing Board NY Fed Workshop on the Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning, New York 2026-07-09T16:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_09 The general search for US dollars in forward currency markets, combined with the balance-sheet constraints of intermediary dealers, induces persistent failure of covered interest parity (CIP). We investigate these CIP deviations across the entire maturity spectrum by analyzing the daily dynamics of the USD/CHF cross-currency basis curve. Applying functional principal component analysis, we identify three components that explain virtually all curve dynamics: a persistent, slow-moving level component, a temporary steepener, and a short-end component inducing sharp basis widenings and contractions around quarter-end dates. We provide empirical evidence that CIP-implied carry opportunities and US monetary policy announcements widen the entire basis curve, whereas Fed swap line announcements tend to narrow it. During periods of global turmoil, the slope inverts in response to rising credit and capital stress among dealer banks, while funding stress steepens the curve as swap line usage mitigates short-end distortions. Reporting date effects, funding stress, and deteriorating market liquidity widen the basis primarily at the short- end. We further show that regulatory reporting dates generate systematic window-dressing distortions not only at the short end but also in the slope of the basis curve. This effect has weakened since 2022, which is consistent with recent changes in the regulatory landscape. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_09 CIP violations as functional components of the dynamic cross-currency basis curve 2026-07-08T22:00:00Z SNB Covered interest parity FX swaps Cross-currency basis Limits to arbitrage US dollar funding CIP violations as functional components of the dynamic cross-currency basis curve https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_09 The general search for US dollars in forward currency markets, combined with the balance-sheet constraints of intermediary dealers, induces persistent failure of covered interest parity (CIP). We investigate these CIP deviations across the entire maturity spectrum by analyzing the daily dynamics of the USD/CHF cross-currency basis curve. Applying functional principal component analysis, we identify three components that explain virtually all curve dynamics: a persistent, slow-moving level component, a temporary steepener, and a short-end component inducing sharp basis widenings and contractions around quarter-end dates. We provide empirical evidence that CIP-implied carry opportunities and US monetary policy announcements widen the entire basis curve, whereas Fed swap line announcements tend to narrow it. During periods of global turmoil, the slope inverts in response to rising credit and capital stress among dealer banks, while funding stress steepens the curve as swap line usage mitigates short-end distortions. Reporting date effects, funding stress, and deteriorating market liquidity widen the basis primarily at the short- end. We further show that regulatory reporting dates generate systematic window-dressing distortions not only at the short end but also in the slope of the basis curve. This effect has weakened since 2022, which is consistent with recent changes in the regulatory landscape. David Borner David Borner Heiko Sorg Heiko Sorg David Borner and Heiko Sorg 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-09 F31 G15 G2 2026-07-08T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260708_msl https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260708_msl Aktuelle Wirtschaftslage und Geldpolitik 2026-07-08T16:30:00Z SNB Aktuelle Wirtschaftslage und Geldpolitik https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260708_msl Martin Schlegel Chairman of the Governing Board Swiss Risk Association, Zurich 2026-07-08T16:30:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/snb_bills_new https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/snb_bills_new Announcements and conditions for new SNB Bills auctions (in Swiss francs) 2026-07-08T14:00:00Z SNB Announcements and conditions for new SNB Bills auctions (in Swiss francs) https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/snb_bills_new 2026-07-08T14:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_08 We present a microfounded information mechanism that causes monetary policy transmission lags to be endogenously variable, even when firms are rational and face no exogenous costs of changing prices. Firms must form two distinct expectations, namely, a forecast of future demand and a nowcast of the current unobserved state, because information arrives at different frequencies. We model this setting as a partial-equilibrium, continuous-time optimal stopping problem in which firms receive a continuous noisy signal and a discrete precise signal. Because exercising the timing option to reprice has a sunk opportunity cost, an endogenous inaction region emerges; firms rationally delay adjustment until the discrete signal provides sufficient actionable information. The resulting dynamics reproduce observed Swiss price-adjustment patterns and the highly variable transmission lags of monetary policy. Thus, the framework provides a rational-agent microfoundation for lag heterogeneity. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_08 Forecasts, nowcasts and monetary policy lags 2026-07-07T22:00:00Z SNB Information frictions State-dependent pricing Monetary policy lags Forecasts, nowcasts and monetary policy lags https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_08 We present a microfounded information mechanism that causes monetary policy transmission lags to be endogenously variable, even when firms are rational and face no exogenous costs of changing prices. Firms must form two distinct expectations, namely, a forecast of future demand and a nowcast of the current unobserved state, because information arrives at different frequencies. We model this setting as a partial-equilibrium, continuous-time optimal stopping problem in which firms receive a continuous noisy signal and a discrete precise signal. Because exercising the timing option to reprice has a sunk opportunity cost, an endogenous inaction region emerges; firms rationally delay adjustment until the discrete signal provides sufficient actionable information. The resulting dynamics reproduce observed Swiss price-adjustment patterns and the highly variable transmission lags of monetary policy. Thus, the framework provides a rational-agent microfoundation for lag heterogeneity. Diego M. Hager Diego M. Hager Samuel Reynard Samuel Reynard Diego M. Hager and Samuel Reynard 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-08 E31 E52 D84 2026-07-07T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_07 The utilisation rate of technical capacity is a key indicator of an economy's cyclical position and plays a crucial role in the estimation of production functions. Despite its importance, economy-wide measures of capacity utilisation are often not available. Instead, single sector series, typically that for manufacturing, are used as a proxy. However, this approach overlooks the heterogeneity of sectoral developments. Using Swiss data, we develop a methodology to estimate a series of aggregate capacity utilisation. Our measure covers eleven sectors, accounting for two thirds of the economy, and is mostly based on survey data retropolated back to Q1 1995. The sectoral shares of the capital stock are used to aggregate the sectoral capacity utilisation series. Several evaluations show that our aggregate series provides valuable information for the analysis of overall economic activity and is superior to the use of manufacturing capacity utilisation. Our methodology can serve as a basis for the construction of an aggregate capacity utilisation rate series for other countries. https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_07 Economy-wide capacity utilisation rate: Methodological framework and application to Swiss data 2026-07-06T22:00:00Z SNB Capacity utilisation Business cycle indicator Aggregation Switzerland Economy-wide capacity utilisation rate: Methodological framework and application to Swiss data https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2026/working_paper_2026_07 The utilisation rate of technical capacity is a key indicator of an economy's cyclical position and plays a crucial role in the estimation of production functions. Despite its importance, economy-wide measures of capacity utilisation are often not available. Instead, single sector series, typically that for manufacturing, are used as a proxy. However, this approach overlooks the heterogeneity of sectoral developments. Using Swiss data, we develop a methodology to estimate a series of aggregate capacity utilisation. Our measure covers eleven sectors, accounting for two thirds of the economy, and is mostly based on survey data retropolated back to Q1 1995. The sectoral shares of the capital stock are used to aggregate the sectoral capacity utilisation series. Several evaluations show that our aggregate series provides valuable information for the analysis of overall economic activity and is superior to the use of manufacturing capacity utilisation. Our methodology can serve as a basis for the construction of an aggregate capacity utilisation rate series for other countries. Andreas Bachmann Andreas Bachmann Elizabeth Steiner Elizabeth Steiner Andreas Bachmann and Elizabeth Steiner 2026 SNB Working Papers 2026-07 E22 E30 C43 2026-07-06T22:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260707_wki https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260707_wki Exchange rate indices, July 2026 2026-07-07T07:00:00Z SNB Exchange rate indices, July 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260707_wki 2026-07-07T07:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260707_sddsplus https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260707_sddsplus IMF SDDS Plus, 7 July 2026 2026-07-07T07:00:00Z SNB IMF SDDS Plus, 7 July 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260707_sddsplus 2026-07-07T07:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/ch_bonds_new https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/ch_bonds_new Public bonds of the Swiss Confederation: New bond issues 2026-07-07T06:00:00Z SNB Public bonds of the Swiss Confederation: New bond issues https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/ch_bonds_new 2026-07-07T06:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/claims_new https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/claims_new Announcements and conditions for new money market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederation (in Swiss francs) 2026-07-06T14:00:00Z SNB Announcements and conditions for new money market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederation (in Swiss francs) https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/claims_new 2026-07-06T14:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260706_gwd https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260706_gwd Important monetary policy data, 6 July 2026 2026-07-06T08:00:00Z SNB Important monetary policy data, 6 July 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260706_gwd 2026-07-06T08:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260702_anmarskr https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260702_anmarskr Financial Stability Report 2026 2026-07-02T08:00:00Z SNB Financial Stability Report 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches/2026/ref_20260702_anmarskr Antoine Martin / Sébastien Kraenzlin Vice Chairman of the Governing Board / Alternate Member of the Governing Board Background briefing on the Financial Stability Report 2026, Berne 2026-07-02T08:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases/2026/pre_20260702 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases/2026/pre_20260702 Publication of Financial Stability Report 2026 2026-07-02T04:30:00Z SNB Publication of Financial Stability Report 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases/2026/pre_20260702 2026-07-02T04:30:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/particular/landing-pages/fsb-2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/particular/landing-pages/fsb-2026 Financial Stability Report 2026 2026-07-12T14:47:01Z SNB Financial Stability Report 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/particular/landing-pages/fsb-2026 2026-07-12T14:47:01Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/snb_bills_new https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/snb_bills_new Announcements and conditions for new SNB Bills auctions (in Swiss francs) 2026-07-08T14:00:00Z SNB Announcements and conditions for new SNB Bills auctions (in Swiss francs) https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/snb_bills_new 2026-07-08T14:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260701_a https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260701_a Interest rates and exchange rates, July 2026 2026-07-01T12:30:00Z SNB Interest rates and exchange rates, July 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/07/statpub_news_20260701_a 2026-07-01T12:30:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/06/statpub_news_20260630_c https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/06/statpub_news_20260630_c SNB balance sheet items end of May 2026 2026-06-30T07:00:00Z SNB SNB balance sheet items end of May 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/06/statpub_news_20260630_c 2026-06-30T07:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/06/statpub_news_20260630_sddsplus https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/06/statpub_news_20260630_sddsplus IMF SDDS Plus, 30 June 2026 2026-06-30T07:00:00Z SNB IMF SDDS Plus, 30 June 2026 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/statistical-publications/data-portal/2026/06/statpub_news_20260630_sddsplus 2026-06-30T07:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/claims_new https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/claims_new Announcements and conditions for new money market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederation (in Swiss francs) 2026-07-06T14:00:00Z SNB Announcements and conditions for new money market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederation (in Swiss francs) https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/financial-markets/claims_new 2026-07-06T14:00:00Z en https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/payment-transactions/projekt_helvetia https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/payment-transactions/projekt_helvetia Project Helvetia 2026-07-12T14:47:01Z SNB Project Helvetia https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/payment-transactions/projekt_helvetia 2026-07-12T14:47:01Z en