Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas Lustenberger
Author-Name-First: Thomas
Author-Name-Last: Lustenberger
Author-Person: plu399
Author-Name: Dr. Enzo Rossi
Author-Name-First: Enzo
Author-Name-Last: Rossi
Author-Person: pro820
Title: The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Non-Beauty Contest
Abstract: We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest-rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both models, but are rarely supported by yield forecasts. In half of the countries, a higher precision of public information regarding interest rates increases welfare. During forward guidance, public information is less precise than private information.
Length: 64 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
Contact-Email: forschung@snb.ch
File-URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2017/working_paper_2017_17
File-Format: text/html
Number: 2017-17
Classification-JEL: D8, E43, E52, E58, G1, G29
Keywords: Value of information, beauty contest, interest rate forecasts, bond yield forecasts, strategic forecasts, central bank transparency, forward guidance
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2017-17