Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dr. Marco Huwiler
Author-Name-First: Marco
Author-Name-Last: Huwiler
Author-Person: phu400
Author-Name: Daniel Kaufmann
Author-Name-First: Daniel
Author-Name-Last: Kaufmann
Author-Person:  pka480
Title: Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model
Abstract: This study documents the SNB's ARIMA model based on disaggregated CPI data used to produce inflation forecasts over the short-term horizon, and evaluates its forecasting performance. Our findings suggest that the disaggregate ARIMA model for the Swiss CPI performed better than relevant benchmarks. In particular, estimating ARIMA models for individual CPI expenditure items and aggregating the forecasts from these models gives better results than directly applying the ARIMA methodto the total CPI. We then extend the model to factor in changes in the collection frequency of the Swiss CPI data and show that this extension further improves the forecasting performance.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
Contact-Email: forschung@snb.ch
File-URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-studies/2013/03/economic_studies_2013_07
File-Format: text/html
Number: 2013-07
Classification-JEL: C22, C52, C53, E37
Keywords: Swiss CPI inflation, Forecast combination, Forecast aggregation, Disaggregateinformation, ARIMA models, Missing data, Kalman filter
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbecs:2013-07