Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Katrin Assenmacher
Author-Name-First: Katrin
Author-Name-Last: Assenmacher
Author-Person: pwe101
Author-Name: M. Hashem Pesaran
Author-Name-First: M. Hashem
Author-Name-Last: Pesaran
Author-Person: ppe34
Title: A VECX* model of the Swiss economy
Abstract: This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a long-run structure between the variables. Moreover, we analyse the dynamic properties of the model using Generalised Impulse Response Functions. In its current form the model can be used to produce forecasts for the endogenous variables either under alternative specifi cations of the marginal model for the exogenous variables, or conditional on some pre-specifi ed path of those variables (for scenario forecasting). In due course the Swiss VECX* model can also be integrated within a Global VAR (GVAR) model where the foreign variables of the model are determined endogenously.
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
Contact-Email: forschung@snb.ch
File-URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/economic-studies/2009/01/economic_studies_2009_06
File-Format: text/html
Number: 2009-06
Classification-JEL: C53, C32
Keywords: Long-run structural vector autoregression
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbecs:2009-06