In the medium and long term, the price trend depends essentially on the supply of money. For this reason, the monetary aggregates and loans are important elements in a number of quantitative models used for forecasting inflation. As regards the path of inflation in the short term, indicators relating to economic developments, as well as exchange rates and commodities prices (crude oil), are generally of greater significance.
The SNB regularly issues statements on the development of the principal indicators factored into its inflation forecast. It provides details of the models it uses in a number of its publications.
